Truong Van Cam, Secretary General, VITAS is sure of Vietnam’s T&C exports to the US increasing, with or without TPP. In the month of October last year, Vietnam exported US $ 9.476 billion of T&C products to the US. Analysts estimate that export turnover would reach US $ 16 billion by 2018 and to US $ 20 billion by 2020. However, the figures may be unattainable once Donald Trump takes charge as US President. He has reportedly said that the US may pull out of TPP on day 1 of his working.
Three scenarios come under spotlight over Vietnam’s export to US when talking about TPP. First, TPP could take effect, but the content of the agreement would change. If so, Vietnam’s export turnover to the US would be 50 per cent lower than initially designed. Second, TPP fails… If this happens, Vietnam’s exports to the US will still enjoy MFN like other WTO members. Third, no TPP, and the Trump administration imposes a monitoring scheme and anti-dumping duties on imports from Asia resulting in decrease in Vietnam’s exports.
However, Nguyen Duc Thanh, Head, Vietnam Institute for Economic Policy and Research (VEPR) is of the view that the US withdrawal from TPP won’t affect Vietnam’s exports to the market. However, T&C exports would not increase as sharply as initially planned.